Prospective Airdrie home buyers may not see a bargain this year

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) is forecasting that 2024 will be another year of home prices rising in Airdrie.

According to its 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report, CREB predicts that, 'while additional supply can help, with less than 1,000 starts per year, it will still take continued growth in construction before we start to see the impact on supply.' 

"Airdrie has dealt with less than two months of supply since early 2021, contributing to annual benchmark prices rising from under $358,267 in 2020 to the $506,300 reported in 2023. While supply levels are expected to improve next year, it will take time for the market to rebalance, likely supporting further price growth in 2024," the report surmised.

For those hoping that 2024 may bring a lowering of home prices in Airdrie, forecasts are stating otherwise. (Graphic Credit to Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB))

CREB also noted that for several years Airdrie's affordable housing prices, in comparison to its regional neighbours, such as Calgary, have made it an attractive market for young families, but this has also contributed to the rise in demands for homes.

"Following two consecutive years of strong population growth and record-high sales, supply levels could not keep up, as 2023 inventory levels fell to near-record lows. Supply challenges have weighed on this market since early 2021, and limited choice has also likely prevented stronger sales activity in 2023."

Although there was a 24 per cent decline in sales in 2023 in comparison to the previous year, when comparing 2023 to 2020, the sales levels are still very high. 

Airdrie's neighbours to the West in Cochrane can expect a more balanced housing market. 

"While the pullback in sales and new listings did not change the seller market conditions, the sales-to-new listings ratio did decline over the past two years, supporting a modest gain in inventory levels and conditions that were not as tight as what was seen in Airdrie," CREB stated.

Regional forecasts are showing that 2024 will continue to favour the seller, although market conditions may be less tight than what was observed in 2023.

"Supply growth is expected to be mostly driven by the upper price ranges for each property type, which will likely decelerate the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties."

CREB also commented on how the high home prices have impacted rental properties, saying that, 'gains in new home starts for rental and ownership will help provide more choice in the market, helping shift the resale market away from the extreme seller’s market conditions we have faced over the past year.'

"However, the supply growth will take time and is contingent on the migration flow into the city and the development process." 

When looking at benchmark prices outside of Calgary, Airdrie is one of the most affordable areas in comparison to other towns and cities. Canmore's benchmark price was listed at over $900,000, while Airdrie's is just over $500,000, making it more affordable than Okotoks and Cochrane. Sthrathmore's benchmark price was the lowest at just over $400,000. 

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