The province has released a more detailed report of Alberta's COVID-19 modelling scenarios.

In a televised address Tuesday night, Premier Jason Kenney revealed what he called "challenging" and "overwhelming" projected numbers for the province.

According to a news release, Alberta Health’s modelling projections indicate total cases ranging from 800,000 to one million infections. These numbers include mild, undiagnosed, detected, confirmed, and treated cases. Alberta Health has put together the following provincial scenarios:

Probable Scenario

  • Mid-May peak
  • 800,000 total infections
  • From 400 to 3,100 total deaths
  • For every case, 1-2 more people are infected
  • This scenario is comparable to the more moderate growth seen in the UK and countries that have had some success in “containing” growth
  • Given our early and aggressive interventions and contact tracing to limit spread, this is expected to be the most likely scenario for Alberta

Elevated Scenario

  • Early May peak
  • 1,060,000 total infections
  • From 500 to 6,600 total deaths
  • For every case, 2 people are infected
  • This is comparable to the more rapid growth initially seen in Hubei
  • Planning for this scenario is prudent and responsible given the catastrophic impacts should the health system become overwhelmed

Extreme Scenario

  • Mid-April peak
  • 1,600,000 total infections peak in
  • From 16,000 to 32,000 total deaths
  • For every case, 3 more people are infected
  • This scenario assumes limited and late interventions so that COVID-19 rapidly spreads through the population
  • This scenario shows what would have happened if Alberta did not undertake early and aggressive interventions and contact tracing to limit spread

“I know these numbers can be overwhelming," Kenney said. "But these models are not a done deal. I want Albertans to see them as a challenge. Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation. The modelling helps us anticipate and prepare for the demands on Alberta’s health care system so we can ensure we are prepared to support patients at the peak of the pandemic and beyond.”

Kenney says the modelling numbers will be updated as the situation progresses.

Dr. Deena Hinshaw says the most import factor in how big or small the impact of COVID-19 is in the province is the behaviour of every Albertan.

"If Albertans stop following public health restrictions and guidelines, we can expect to experience a higher impact than the data currently suggests," warns Hinshaw. "If Albertans strictly follow all public health guidance, we collectively can further reduce the impact from what the modelling is currently predicting."

The model uses several key assumptions, including:

  • not all cases are detected
  • transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
  • there is no asymptomatic transmission
  • people are infectious for 5 to 10 days
  • all ICU patients require ventilation
  • overall 14% of cases are hospitalized and 5% require ICU, but this varies significantly by age

“COVID-19 presents an unprecedented challenge to our healthcare system," said Minister of Health Tyler Shandro. "Our government has taken and continues to take aggressive measures to make sure the health-care system is ready."

Dr. Verna Yiu, President and CEO, Alberta Health Services says thanks to the measures that have been put in place and the hard work of front line health care workers – nurses, doctors and those who support them – Alberta is well-positioned to manage the probable impacts of COVID-19 in the coming months.

“We are actively increasing capacity in Alberta Health Services facilities by postponing non-urgent surgeries and diagnostic imaging, reducing a number of non-emergency services offered in hospitals, relocating patients to continuing care spaces where possible, and enhancing the use of videoconferencing and telephone care to connect physicians and health professionals with patients remotely," says Dr. Yiu.

Alberta Health says all Albertans have a responsibility to help prevent the spread and offers the follow steps to help protect yourself and others:

  • practise social distancing
  • stay home and away from others if sick or in mandatory self-isolation
  • practise good hygiene – wash hands often for at least 20 seconds, cover coughs and sneezes, and avoid touching your face
  • monitor for symptoms, such as cough, fever, fatigue or difficulty breathing

The full report can be found HERE and you can view Premier Kenney's full press conference regarding the report below:

 

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