A new poll out this morning (August 2) from Mainstreet Research found that the United Conservative Party under Brian Jean would have the best chance of beating the NDP in an election.

The poll compared how four potential UCP leaders would fare against the NDP in an election. Mainstreet rotated through leadership candidates Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, Doug Schweitzer as well as potential candidate Derek Fildebrandt in their question set.

"We tested the three leadership candidates and one potential candidate, " said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. "With winning the 2019 election as the goal of the UCP, its important to note the relative strengths and weaknesses of each candidate seeking the leadership."

When compared to a generic ballot with interim UCP leader Nathan Cooper, Brian Jean gave the party the biggest boost. With Jean as leader, the poll showed among decided and leaning voters, 51 percent of Calgarians and 70 percent of Albertans in the rest of the province would vote UCP, while Edmonton would remain an NDP stronghold. The number of undecided voters would reduce to about 6 percent across Alberta if Jean wins leadership of the party.

According to the poll, Jason Kenney as leader would be polarizing. 52 percent of Calgarians and 67 percent of the rest of Alberta's decided and leaning voters would vote UCP under Kenney, and again the NDP would take Edmonton. Kenney is the only potential leader that would cause an increase in undecided voters, with 28 percent of all Albertans saying they don't know who they would vote for if Kenney was the leader of the UCP.

Doug Schweitzer's relative obscurity will be a challenge, but there was significant changes when compared to a generic UCP ballot. Mainstreet attibutes that to the fact that he is neither Brian Jean nor Jason Kenney. Like the other potential leaders, among decided and leaning voters, Schweitzer would likely lose Edmonton and would only enjoy the support of 40 percent of Calgarians and 64 percent of Albertans in the rest of the province. However, a leadership could result in more name recognition for Schweitzer, giving an opportunity for growth.

While Derek Fildebrandt has not yet announced his candidacy for leadership, he was used in the poll as a potential leader. With Fildebrandt as leader, the number of voters that would vote NDP consistently increases as compared to a generic ballot. Fildebrandt would only enjoy a slim margin in Calgary with 41 percent support, while 68 percent of decided and leaning voters in the rest of Alberta would throw their support behind him. The number of undecided voters would decrease to 6 percent, the same as Brian Jean.

Maggi also points out that as a leadership race carries on, those numbers will likely change.

"It's important to keep in mind that as the race goes along perceptions of the candidates may shift for the better or for the worse. In other words, there's plenty of time for these numbers to change."

 

Questions, comments or story ideas? Email us at news@discoverairdrie.com